Market Status

  • Oil prices fluctuated as traders reassessed Hormuz risks
  • Brent trading around $77-79 range

Key Events

Iran Re-closes Strait (June 20)

  • Iran announced it had shut the Strait again, citing Israeli violations of the Lebanon ceasefire
  • US military denied the claim: "Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz"
  • Windward AI analysis (June 21): Only 12 ships transited June 21, down from 21 the prior day
  • 5 of 8 inbound vessels were traveling dark (AIS disabled) — Windward: "dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait"

Lloyd's List: Traffic Defied Closure Claim

  • At least 15 Iran-flagged Suezmaxes and VLCCs were outbound from Gulf of Oman with active AIS (June 21)
  • Commercial traffic continued to move despite Iranian political posturing

US-Iran Talks: Switzerland (Bürgenstock)

  • JD Vance led US delegation; Iranian officials participated
  • Both sides: "constructive but tense" — talks extended into early hours
  • Progress made toward a final deal within 60 days, including Lebanon committee/mechanism
  • Iran's Araghchi: secured waivers for oil/petrochemical exports, blockade lifted, some frozen assets released, reconstruction plan launched

Trump Pre-Talk Warning

  • Trump on Truth Social: "Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don't, we'll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!"

Kpler Data

  • 20 tankers transited June 18 — highest single-day count since June 2
  • Still far below pre-war (100+ ships/day)

Sources

  • CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/22/strait-of-hormuz-iran-us-shipping-oil.html)
  • Windward AI (via X: @WindwardAI)
  • Lloyd's List
  • Kpler (via CNBC)