Market Status

  • Brent August futures: $74.73/barrel (−3.05%) — lowest since before the US-Israel war on Iran began Feb. 28
  • WTI August futures: $71.02/barrel (−~3%)
  • Brent fell to a four-month low
  • This is below pre-war price levels — a complete unwind of the geopolitical risk premium

Key Events

IMO Seafarer Evacuation Plan Announced

  • 11,000+ seafarers stranded in Persian Gulf to begin exiting through Strait of Hormuz
  • IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez: "We have secured the necessary safety guarantees and have thoroughly verified the conditions for safe navigation"
  • Evacuation to involve Iran, Oman, all coastal states, the US, and maritime industry
  • Major humanitarian milestone after ~4 months of strandings

Trump Attacks Oil Companies on Gasoline Prices

  • Trump on Truth Social: oil companies not passing through crude price declines to consumers
  • "The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock!"
  • "In other words, customers are being 'gouged.' I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this."
  • Karen Young (Columbia CGEP): "political theater" — state/local taxes applied at pump; refiners need 2+ weeks to pass through price declines

Supply Chain Normalization Beginning

  • DHL Global Forwarding CEO: "With the Strait opening up, potentially a lot of that should ease" — but normalization takes time
  • Longer transit times for vessels trapped in the Strait; air freight disruptions ongoing

Wood Mackenzie Price Forecast (June 24)

  • 2026 Brent average: $92/barrel (buoyed by March-May peaks)
  • 2027 Brent average: $78/barrel; potentially $70 by Q4 2027
  • Assumes Hormuz flows normalize during August 2026
  • 70% of 11M+ b/d shut-in production back online within 3 months; 90% within 6 months

Key Risk: Israel Lebanon Issue

  • Lebanon ceasefire remains fragile; Israeli operations continuing
  • The seven-hour weekday window constraint Iran is reportedly imposing could make reopened Strait functionally different from pre-war

Structural Market Picture

  • Brent speculative shorts at highest on record
  • Cushing, Oklahoma inventories near operational floor (API: −1M barrels reported)
  • Physical product markets (jet crack spreads) still ~double pre-war levels despite crude relief

Sources

  • CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/24/oil-prices-wti-brent-crude-trump-doj-gasoline-prices-strait-of-hormuz.html)
  • Wood Mackenzie / IndexBox (https://www.indexbox.io/blog/brent-crude-price-swings-as-us-iran-mou-eases-strait-of-hormuz-crisis/)
  • Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil)
  • Sunday Guardian Live (https://sundayguardianlive.com/business/brent-crude-oil-price-today-june-24-brent-falls-below-77-as-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-eases-iran-supply-outlook-weighs-on-oil-markets)