Overview
The pre-crisis baseline period covers the months leading up to the February 28, 2026 Hormuz closure, during which the geopolitical conditions that would trigger the world's largest-ever oil supply disruption were already taking shape. The Strait of Hormuz remained open throughout this period, carrying approximately 130 ships per day and serving as the conduit for roughly 20% of global oil supplies and 22% of global LNG trade. Global economic conditions were healthy: 2025 global GDP grew at 2.9% and global merchandise trade expanded at 4.7%.
Key Events in This Period
- U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites — June 21, 2025 — Congressional Research Service (CRS R45281), Q1 Supply Destruction
- Iran parliament votes to support Hormuz closure — June 23, 2025 — CRS R45281, Q1 Supply Destruction
- NSPM 2 ("maximum pressure" policy on Iran) issued — February 2025 — External Agent Brief
- CRS R45281 (Iran-Hormuz background report) updated — August 4, 2025 — Q1 Supply Destruction
- EU Gas Storage Amending Regulation adopted — September 10, 2025 — Q1 Supply Destruction
- EU gas storage at 83% full by October 1, 2025 — ENTSOG Winter Outlook, Q3 Europe Impact
Defining Characteristics
This period is defined by the escalating U.S.-Iran confrontation that began with the June 21, 2025 U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's parliament voted to support Hormuz closure just two days later, signaling Tehran's intent. The "maximum pressure" NSPM 2 policy from February 2025 set the broader strategic framework.
Critically, the Strait of Hormuz had never been fully closed in modern history. The 1980s Iran-Iraq Tanker War had seen roughly one tanker struck per day at peak, but the waterway remained passable. Pre-conflict expectations for closure were low — the CRS noted in August 2025 that Hormuz remained open even amid heightened tensions, and the Dallas Fed confirms that a full closure had no modern precedent.
Economic conditions entering the crisis were robust: global GDP growth at 2.9% (2025) and trade growth at 4.7% (2025), providing some buffer — though not nearly enough to absorb the 20% supply loss that followed.
Related Articles
- Q1 Supply Destruction
- Historical Parallels
- Congressional Research Service Iran Hormuz
- Dallas Fed Hormuz Closure
- Q3 Europe Impact
Source
Compiled from pre-crisis baseline data including EIA STEO projections, IEA historical analysis, and OPEC reference sources through early 2026.