date compiled: 2026-05-07
type: institutional-forecasting-error
institution: Goldman Sachs
source: @sam_d_1995 tweet (May 7, 2026) citing Goldman Sachs research; attached analysis slide
description: Goldman Sachs predicted Strait of Hormuz traffic would reach 120% of normal levels by May 2026 — a spectacular directional miss, as flows remained severely disrupted; this follows their pre-war Brent $56/b baseline error, warranting a downgrade in their Hormuz-flow reliability score.
The Claim
Goldman Sachs research predicted that Strait of Hormuz traffic would return to 120% of normal levels by the current date (May 2026).
Source tweet (sam_d_1995, May 7, 2026):
"still thinking about the Goldman Sachs 'analysis' that predicted we would be at 120% of normal traffic in the strait of Hormuz by now"
The attached image appears to be a Goldman Sachs analysis slide making this specific traffic-volume claim.
Reality Check
As of May 2026, Strait of Hormuz traffic has not returned to normal levels, let alone exceeded them at 120%. The ongoing Hormuz disruption — which has caused actual export losses exceeding 13 mb/d (per IEA April 2026) — means traffic remains significantly below baseline, not above it.
The claim of 120% of normal traffic is a spectacular directional miss: Goldman Sachs appears to have predicted a rapid rebound to above-normal flows, when in reality disruption persists.
Distinction from Price Forecast Misses
This forecasting error is distinct from Goldman Sachs's oil price trajectory ($56 → $85 → $90):
| Forecast Type | Goldman Sachs Claim | Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Price (documented) | Brent $85→$90/b post-ceasefire | Prices have remained elevated; directional miss on pre-war baseline only |
| Traffic volume (this article) | Hormuz traffic at 120% of normal | Traffic has not returned to normal; remains severely disrupted |
The price forecast revisions were dramatic but directionally correct (prices went up). The traffic-volume forecast was directionally wrong — predicting above-normal flows when flows remain catastrophically below normal.
Credibility Implication
Recommendation: Downgrade Goldman Sachs reliability score for Hormuz-flow predictions.
Goldman Sachs has now made two categories of error in this crisis:
- Pre-war baseline error: $56/b Brent (November 2025) proved wildly too low — this is already documented in the KB
- Traffic rebound error: Predicted 120% of normal traffic by now — not previously documented in the KB; this article adds it
A bank that cannot correctly model either the pre-war price baseline or the traffic recovery trajectory should receive reduced weight in any Hormuz-related reliability assessment.
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Goldman Sachs Oil Outlook 2026 · Goldman Sachs Scenarios · Q1 Supply Destruction · Q Hormuz Duration
Tags
institutional-forecasting-error goldman-sachs hormuz traffic-forecast credibility-downgrade