Oil-Shock Monitor KB — Index
Entry point for the 2026 Hormuz Oil Shock knowledge base. Covers the U.S./Israel–Iran conflict beginning February 28, 2026, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz (~20% of global oil supply), and the cascading effects on prices, European energy, and global trade.
Core Narrative Articles
| Article | Question | TL;DR |
|---|---|---|
| [[Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION]] | How much supply was destroyed? | 9.1 mbd shut-in (April 2026); 95% Hormuz transit collapse; ~20% of global supply removed. CPC pipeline sabotage (Kazakhstan) adds 3–5 year repair tail. |
| [[Q2-PRICE-IMPACT]] | How do prices respond? | Supply elasticity ≈ 0 short-run. Prices must rise to clear the market. EIA central: $115/b Brent Q2; Goldman $110; JPMorgan/MS $150–$180 if Islamabad fails. |
| [[Q3-EUROPE-IMPACT]] | How does Europe hold up? | Europe + South Asia most exposed. EU gas storage ~10% below 2025 levels by April 2026. Germany/France <25% full. Urea disruption (30% of global seaborne exports via Hormuz) creates 6–12 month food price lag. |
Synthetic Analyses
| File | Description |
|---|---|
| [[SYNTHESIS]] | Cross-institution synthesis: where all 11 sources agree vs. where they diverge (price ceiling, European resilience, alternative routing, China bilateral carve-outs) |
| [[HISTORICAL-PARALLELS]] | 2026 vs. 1973, 1979, 1990, 2022: supply loss magnitude, price spikes, GDP impacts, resolution mechanisms — and where 2026 is historically unprecedented |
| [[OPEN-QUESTIONS]] | 25 open questions across 6 themes: Supply, Price, European Gas, Ceasefire Stability, Economic Impact, Institutional — with what data would resolve each and expected resolution timeline |
| [[PRICE-ELASTICITY]] | Short-run oil supply elasticity ≈ 0; demand elasticity −0.1; capital-oil substitution σ = 0.13; OPEC effective spare capacity ~1.5–3 MMbd (vs. 5+ MMbd headline); demand destruction thresholds |
How to Navigate the Open Questions
The 25 questions in OPEN-QUESTIONS are organized into 6 themes. Use this guide to find what matters to you:
If you're tracking the crisis resolution:
→ Q4.1 (Islamabad outcome), Q4.2 (Iran's 10-point plan viability), Q4.3 ($2M/vessel fee viability)
If you're modeling prices:
→ Q2.1 (EIA $115 vs. Morgan Stanley $150+ ceiling), Q2.2 (demand destruction threshold), Q2.3 (EIA May recovery credibility given voyage lag), Q2.4 (permanent Hormuz risk premium)
If you're focused on Europe:
→ Q3.1 (current gas storage by country — Oct 2025 vs. Apr 2026 data conflict), Q3.2 (TTF threshold for industrial demand destruction), Q3.3 (U.S. LNG export capacity offset)
If you're tracking supply recovery:
→ Q1.1 (Hormuz closure duration), Q1.2 (post-reopening restoration — 45–60 day physical lag), Q1.3 (infrastructure damage extent), Q1.4 (CPC pipeline 3–5 year repair tail), Q1.5 (China/Iran bilateral carve-outs scale)
If you're tracking second-order effects:
→ Q3.4 (urea → food price inflation, 6–12 month lag), Q5.2 (developing nation debt/food crisis exposure), Q5.4 (maritime insurance / permanent rerouting changes)
If you're tracking institutional credibility:
→ Q6.1 (EIA central case credibility), Q6.2 (IEA emergency stock drawdown pace), Q6.3 (WTO AIS data completeness), Q6.5 (undisclosed dark supply losses)