Sources

I wrote ⤵️ this @Opinion column about the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry last June. https://t.co/TQg6HHD3J8

The underlying logic of the petrodollar — US stability in exchange for Gulf oil dollars flowing into Treasuries — has been broken, Aaron Brown says (via @opinion) https://t.co/gGOYhyVDoA

*Crude oil backwardation has been VERY reliable at identifying structural tops in oil. When near-term futures contracts exceed long-term by a large margin, it creates a spike in backwardation like this one.

Two 9 sigma market events

Red line = OECD Europe + Americas Commercial Crude (right axis, 0.95B barrels): This tracks commercial crude inventories held by Western buyers. Despite the tanker collapse, this line has barely moved — when it finally does, the physical shock will have arrived.

seems relevant https://t.co/L9CbR99Z1S

Ghalibaf’s post of 3/24/26 on “paper v. physical oil” aged like fine wine: https://t.co/G31AqKSsf5

The usual focus on fossil fuel intensity of power sectors is too narrow given the current shock. 🇪🇺 remains very reliant on fossil fuels in its overall energy mix (67%). Even more so for 🇩🇪 (78%) or 🇮🇹 (75%). Nordics & France the least exposed (under 35% in 🇸🇪&🇫🇮). https://t.co/gLJ2JkhGP6

London’s Heathrow Airport is expected to be among the hardest hit major hubs in Europe due to fuel supply constraints. The situation is worsened by the UK’s closure last year of an aviation fuel production plant in Scotland.

🇪🇺 gas storage level still going down... https://t.co/WSSVEKyGtx

I know it’s not like Covid for many reasons but the whole “we’re a week or two behind other countries’ trajectories” sure rhymes with early 2020 at least

can't print oil

UK to receive last tanker of jet fuel from Middle East this week https://t.co/QV5DjAHU60

So, the overall deficit is around 1%, potentially 0% if the above stats are 1% higher, and would remain to be so for 3 months until the IEA oil reserves have been fully depleted.

ICYMI - Sony announces that it's suspending fulfillment of all orders for nearly its entire SD and CF express memory card product lines "due to the global shortage of semiconductors (memory) and other factors." https://t.co/CE6x7QoBKa

It happens gradually, then all at once.

https://t.co/pnn7NiguUr

Since March 3, approximately 11 LNG tankers that were originally headed for Europe have been rerouted to Asia.

The situation on oil markets is like a car racing towards a wall. The car is not slowing down (at today's prices, there is hardly any demand destruction). Instead, everyone in the car is betting that the wall will disappear before a crash happens.

Asian oil prices (Dubai, Oman) in total freefall and about to catch down to Brent, as market slowly figuring out that flows to China, India, Japan normalizing. Iran Hormuz leverage fading

What does this mean? Seems to be a positive signal.

Full analysis: https://t.co/iFmUcarGdV

10$/b 🛢📈➡️demznd reduction 400kb/d according to Bp (perhaps more) https://t.co/xXIWhO2uWL

My calculation. If we need a 15mb/d reduction, we would then need 🛢🚀 to above 300$/b

No one could have predicted this (unless they thought about it).

Le dernier méthanier parti plein du Qatar arrive à destination maintenant. Les choses sérieuses physiques commencent maintenant pour le GNL.

10 years of economical growth would be wiped out.

Jerry cans lol

Markets are not yet pricing such a long disruption (more 4 to 6 months). Once markets price this, expect TTF to go above 100 EUR/Mwh

(Based prewar market estimates, Iran managed to destroy ~3.5% of global LNG capacity in a single strike.) https://t.co/shUVJ0bS1w

The chemical industry simply can’t turn plants off and on again, the design basis is to run at high utilization to make even a breakeven return. https://t.co/CBNcAbJ4lI

Meanwhile it is still $100 in the US https://t.co/YyvgAMdMwl

@zerohedge Natural Gas / LNG spread right now: US $3 / MMBtu, Europe $15-17 / MMBtu and Asia $20-25 / MMBtu and it will get worse.

My @Opinion column: https://t.co/fht4fu3gMf https://t.co/HqDgCcyYHz

Multiple areas of the port, a key installation and the UAE’s only oil export terminal outside of the Strait of Hormuz, were seen burning. https://t.co/3ybiql7Aax

Iran blinked!

In the medium term, the war will likely accelerate global demand for Chinese batteries, solar panels and more.

Not one media outlet has pointed out 10 million barrels total has been redirected from the Strait

Yield = 28M free barrels of oil.

https://t.co/KNpxiCSIiE

Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.

#oott

The market is coming to grips with the idea that not much gas demand exists over $20/MMbtu and we are about to find how much there is over $15. Renewables, batteries and more flexible coal use may be rewriting the book on gas demand elasticity. @ColumbiaUEnergy

In poorer countries, the shock will manifest as outright physical shortages. https://t.co/TnRdZjB247

Asian nations rely more on energy imports from the Strait of Hormuz than Europe, the US, or Oceania. https://t.co/XPoMA1CUEH

Sumitomo Chemical declared force majeure yesterday, making it the fifth Asian chemical company in a single week. First Chandra Asri in Indonesia, then Yeochun NCC in South Korea. By March 5, Petrochemical Corporation of Singapore had declared force majeure on 1.1 million tons of ethylene capacity on Jurong Island. Aster followed a day later with its cracker running at half capacity. The root cause is the same for all five: naphtha, the feedstock these plants break down into the base chemicals behind plastics, rubber, and packaging. Asian steam crackers source most of their naphtha from the Middle East, and virtually all of it transits the Strait of Hormuz. When the Strait closed, all five lost their feedstock within days. Five force majeures in seven days. This is a massive disruption of the chemicals that hold the global economy together. Polymer prices are already up double digits. Everything downstream gets more expensive from here.

This is unprecedented volatility. https://t.co/k22Gb2ZZzQ

pretty amazing Aramco has a 7mmbbl/d pipeline that they basically weren't using until this week https://t.co/puhgmIfJNx

We're in uncharted territory- if WTI crude holds these gains tomorrow- the current rise of 29.9% or $27.16/bbl would be its largest single day price jump- in both percent and amount- ever. Ever. EVER.

NEW: US officials surprised by Iranian military response, did not expect retaliatory strikes to be extensive or sustained, planned for operations in Iran to go similarly to Venezuela according to NYT.

*SUMITOMO CHEMICAL ASIA DECLARES FORCE MAJEURE ON DELIVERIES

Everyone is doing the FORCE MAJEURE. Its the new viral TikTok trend for oil and chemical executives.

Assessment from the Dutch bank Rabobank – basically, in another week we're all fucked: https://t.co/aJVwHxeEjC

BREAKING: US oil prices fall to $95/barrel as the reversal accelerates, now up just +4% on the day. https://t.co/4F5sd62kkJ

TRUMP on oil prices to the New York Post: “I have a plan for everything.”

Iran likely has no radar coverage left , as any radar emission required for anti ship missle targeting would be detected by US ELINT and provide US with radar location.

“If Gulf money is off the table who is going to fund datacenter buildout?”

It’s not looking good, team https://t.co/ez5O5dFZgD

The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.

This is the largest oil supply shock in history in mb/d terms https://t.co/SKIivFEc9Q

WTI crude oil is now forecast to reach $150, according to @Kalshi. https://t.co/q9koHSz3Rq

L’ampleur de cette hausse dépend de la pente du coût marginal de production — c’est-à-dire de la vitesse à laquelle le coût d’un baril supplémentaire augmente, représentée sur le graphique — et n’a aucune raison technologique, géologique ou même logique d’être proportionnelle à la part d’offre à remplacer.

BREAKING: Qatar's energy minister warns oil price could rise to $150 in 'two to three weeks' if tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Financial Times report.

Brent is close to $90 https://t.co/1niBSPzlAs

Qatar is now warning that prices could hit $150/barrel. https://t.co/A7koovkMuC

https://t.co/VKs73z3Pc9

Do you know what that means? https://t.co/g6XKfvHkdD

"If the disruption continues, consumers could see higher prices for bread within six to 10 weeks, eggs within a few months and pork and broiler chicken within six months." https://t.co/1916Nwt71D

BREAKING: China orders its largest oil refineries to suspend exports of diesel & gasoline.

#oott

The fire just started. And there's no one coming to put it out.

#oott

What you're looking at is not a sunrise — it's the Russian LNG tanker ARCTIC METAGAZ (IMO 9243148) struck by a massive explosion in the Mediterranean this morning. Photographed by crew aboard a merchant vessel, via Vanguard Tech. https://t.co/QrX5BWWTr0