Baker Institute: 2025 Oil Prices and Demand Outlook — OPEC, Shale, and Global Supply Trends
Institution: Baker Institute for Public Policy (Rice University)
Date: 2025
URL: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/2025-oil-prices-and-demand-outlook-opec-shab-and-global-supply-trends
File: baker-institute-2025-oil-prices-demand-outlook.md
Summary
⚠️ ACCESS BLOCKED — Cloudflare bot protection (403). This Baker Institute (Rice University) research paper on OPEC production strategy, U.S. shale supply response, and the global supply-demand balance for 2025 could provide strong pre-shock baseline context. The full text was not accessible via automated web fetch.
Available Information
The manifest describes this source as providing analysis on:
- OPEC production strategy and spare capacity
- U.S. shale supply response and production growth
- Global supply-demand balance entering 2026
- Pre-shock baseline for oil market analysis
Relevance Assessment
This paper would have provided the pre-crisis (pre-February 2026) supply/demand context for the oil market. The April 2026 EIA STEO and Dallas Fed analysis both reference the current shock in comparison to historical baselines, but neither provides the detailed 2025 OPEC/shale analysis this paper presumably contained.
Key Topics (from description)
- OPEC production capacity and strategy in 2025
- U.S. shale supply elasticity and production response
- Global oil supply-demand balance entering the crisis period
- Pre-shock inventory levels and spare capacity
What Was Lost
Without access to this paper, the knowledge base lacks a detailed academic analysis of the pre-shock supply stack. The EIA STEO and Dallas Fed papers reference the market conditions but do not provide the granular OPEC/shale breakdown this paper presumably offered.
Action Required
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