EIA STEO: LNG and Global Gas Section (April 2026)

Institution: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Date: April 7, 2026

URL: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php

File: eia-april-2026-steo-lng-section.md

Summary

This is the LNG and natural gas subset of the EIA April 2026 STEO (full source: eia-april-2026-steo.md). It documents the impact of the Hormuz closure on global LNG markets, noting that U.S. LNG export facilities are running at near-peak capacity with very limited flexibility to increase exports, and that reduced LNG flows through Hormuz have sharply widened the spread between Henry Hub and European/Asian import prices. U.S. natural gas storage ended the 2025–2026 withdrawal season 3% above the five-year average.

Key Findings

**LNG spread widening:** Reduction in flows of LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz has "sharply increased the spread" between the U.S. Henry Hub spot price benchmark and European and Asian import prices. (EIA STEO, April 2026)

**U.S. LNG export capacity utilization:** U.S. LNG export facilities running at near-peak capacity — exporting **nearly 18 Bcf/d in March 2026**, close to the record set in December 2025. Only "very limited flexibility" exists to increase exports, coming from deferred maintenance, new project ramp-ups, and recent export authorization agreements. (EIA STEO, April 2026)

**U.S. LNG export forecast:** **15 Bcf/d (2025)** → **17 Bcf/d (2026)** → **19 Bcf/d (2027)**. (EIA STEO, April 2026)

**Henry Hub price forecast:** **$3.53/MMBtu (2025)** → **$3.67/MMBtu (2026)** → **$3.59/MMBtu (2027)**. (EIA STEO, April 2026)

**Natural gas storage (end of withdrawal season):** Storage ended the 2025–2026 withdrawal season (November–March) **3% above the five-year average**, at just over **1,900 Bcf**. (EIA STEO, April 2026)

**Natural gas storage (summer 2026 projection):** Expected to end October 2026 at **4,015 Bcf**, 6% above the five-year average. Storage injections expected to outpace the five-year average due to production growth and limited export capacity. (EIA STEO, April 2026)

**Global LNG supply disruption context:** The Hormuz closure is reducing global LNG supply, creating a supply-demand imbalance that manifests as higher European/Asian import prices relative to Henry Hub. (EIA STEO, April 2026)

Entities Mentioned

**Organizations:** U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. LNG export terminal operators
**Places/Countries:** United States (as LNG exporter), Europe (as LNG buyer), Asia (as LNG buyer), Qatar, UAE (LNG exporters via Hormuz)
**Infrastructure:** Henry Hub (U.S. natural gas price benchmark), U.S. LNG export terminals
**Numbers:** ~18 Bcf/d (March 2026 U.S. LNG exports), 15/17/19 Bcf/d (2025/26/27 export forecasts), $3.53/$3.67/$3.59/MMBtu (2025/26/27 Henry Hub), 1,900 Bcf (end-winter storage), 4,015 Bcf (end-October 2026 storage projection), 3% above average (end-winter surplus), 6% above average (end-summer surplus)

Relevance to Q1/Q2/Q3

**Q1 (Hormuz closure extent):** Medium relevance — documents that LNG flows through Hormuz have been reduced, affecting global supply; confirms U.S. export facilities near capacity
**Q2 (Price impact):** Medium relevance — the spread widening between Henry Hub and European/Asian prices is a key indicator of the supply shock magnitude; documents U.S. gas price forecasts
**Q3 (Europe gas/security):** High direct relevance — documents the LNG supply reduction affecting Europe, the spread widening (Europe paying more relative to Henry Hub), and U.S. inability to rapidly increase exports to fill the gap

Quotes

"The reduction in flows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports through the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global LNG supply and sharply increased the spread between the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price and European and Asian import prices." — EIA STEO, April 2026

"U.S. LNG export facilities are running at near-peak capacity... Only very limited flexibility exists to increase exports." — EIA STEO, April 2026