Goldman Sachs — Oil Market Outlook 2026
date compiled: 2026-04-12
institution: Goldman Sachs
type: investment-bank
sources: Reuters (Apr 9), OilPrice.com, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance
Model Details
Goldman's Q2 downgrade (Apr 9) reflects the two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Their analysts trimmed Brent to ~$90 and WTI to ~$87 for Q2 as the market interpreted the ceasefire as a bullish-to-neutral shift.
Goldman's framework:
- Short-term (Q2): Ceasefire → supply fears ease → prices retreat from $110 intraday highs
- Medium-term (Q3/Q4): Conditional on Hormuz restoration speed
- Severe scenario (ceasefire breaks): $120+ sustained
Key Insight
Goldman's severe scenario ($120) maps to their 21-day disruption assumption. The market is currently pricing in a reasonably fast resolution, which keeps the risk premium contained. If Islamabad (Apr 10) fails or the ceasefire breaks, Goldman would likely revise their Q3/Q4 forecasts upward.