Morgan Stanley — Oil Market Scenarios 2026

date compiled: 2026-04-12

institution: Morgan Stanley

type: investment-bank

sources: Morgan Stanley Insights (Iran Conflict article, Podcast), TipRanks, Bloomberg

Key Morgan Stanley Findings

Normalize-after-reopen lag: Morgan Stanley explicitly notes that even if Hormuz reopens, it will take several months for oil production to normalize. This is consistent with the voyage lag argument made elsewhere in the KB (Vitol, EIA STEO).

European refinery impact: Refineries and petrochemical plants worldwide — particularly in Asia — are feeling reduced supply pressure. This is the current acute phase.

Post-ceasefire repricing: With the Apr 7 ceasefire, markets repriced toward the easing scenario. The Apr 10 Islamabad summit is the next catalyst.