WTO Data Lab: Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker

Institution: World Trade Organization (WTO) — Data Lab

Date: March 2026 (based on AIS tracking data from the conflict period)

URL: https://datalab.wto.org/Strait-of-Hormuz-Trade-Tracker

File: wto-hormuz-trade-tracker.md

Summary

The WTO Data Lab's Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker uses AIS (Automatic Identification System) vessel tracking data to document the near-complete cessation of outbound maritime trade from the Persian Gulf following Iran's announcement of the closure on March 2, 2026. Crude oil, LNG, and fertilizer-related outbound shipments fell to effectively zero on February 28, 2026. Inbound agricultural shipments initially continued because ships had already passed through the Strait before the closure.

Key Findings

**Crude oil outbound shipments fell to almost zero on February 28, 2026** — the date of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered the conflict. (WTO Data Lab, AIS tracking)

**LNG outbound shipments also dropped abruptly on February 28** — with virtually no visible outbound activity thereafter. (WTO Data Lab, AIS tracking)

**Fertilizer-related shipments dropped abruptly after the closure** — with only a small isolated movement on March 3. (WTO Data Lab, AIS tracking)

**Inbound agricultural shipments did not drop immediately** — because the series is based on discharge dates, not transit dates. Ships already through the Strait before the closure continued arriving at destination ports for days/weeks after. (WTO Data Lab, AIS tracking)

**Ship transits collapsed from ~130/day in February to ~6 in March** — a collapse of approximately 95% per UNCTAD Rapid Assessment #2. (WTO Data Lab, confirmed by UNCTAD)

**Data limitations:** The tracker captures only AIS-traceable vessels; the decline visible across outbound indicators "strongly demonstrates" effective closure, though some traffic may not be captured. (WTO Data Lab)

**Interactive visualizations:** The WTO Data Lab publishes Charts 1-3 showing crude oil, LNG, and fertilizer-related product traffic through the Strait — all showing near-total collapse. (WTO Data Lab)

Entities Mentioned

**Organizations:** WTO Data Lab, AXSMarine (Signal Group) — mentioned as data provider for non-AIS vessels
**Places/Countries:** Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman
**Commodities:** Crude oil, LNG (liquefied natural gas), fertilizer-related products, agricultural products (inbound)
**Numbers:** ~130 ships/day (pre-conflict), ~6 ships/day (March), 95% (transit collapse), February 28, 2026 (closure start), March 2, 2026 (Iran announcement date), March 3, 2026 (isolated fertilizer movement)

Relevance to Q1/Q2/Q3

**Q1 (Hormuz closure extent):** High relevance — provides direct AIS-based evidence of near-complete cessation of oil, LNG, and fertilizer shipments through Hormuz from February 28, 2026 onward
**Q2 (Price impact):** Medium relevance — documents the supply disruption onset timing; crude/LNG/fertilizer flows all halted simultaneously provides supply shock confirmation
**Q3 (Europe gas/security):** Medium relevance — LNG flow disruption through Hormuz directly affects Europe's gas supply; documents the magnitude of the supply shock

Quotes

"The disruption to global maritime trade following Iran's announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 2 March 2026 has resulted in outbound traffic from the Persian Gulf tracked by AIS coming to almost a complete halt." — WTO Data Lab

"Because the data cover AIS-traceable vessels only, the charts may not capture all traffic passing through the Strait. However, the decline visible across outbound indicators strongly demonstrates that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to outbound maritime trade over the period observed." — WTO Data Lab

Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION Q2-PRICE-IMPACT Q3-EUROPE-IMPACT