Tweet: 2039963811336376697

Author: @alialsalim

Date: Fri Apr 03 07:10:47 +0000 2026

URL: https://x.com/i/status/2039963811336376697

The oil shock has yet to arrive in the west.

Blue line = Global Oil in Transit (left axis, Drops from 1.7B barrels to 1.4): This tracks the total volume of crude physically sailing on tankers globally.

It rose steadily through 2025, then in March 2026, there is a cliff-edge collapse of roughly ~300 mb, as empty tankers cannot be reloaded.

Red line = OECD Europe + Americas Commercial Crude (right axis, 0.95B barrels): This tracks commercial crude inventories held by Western buyers. Despite the tanker collapse, this line has barely moved — when it finally does, the physical shock will have arrived.

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