Polymarket Deal Probability¶
Category: Market Signal
Source: Rystad Energy analysis of Polymarket betting markets; SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop, June 11, 2026
What Is the Polymarket Indicator¶
Polymarket is a prediction market (decentralized betting platform) where users bet on the outcome of real-world events using cryptocurrency. For the Hormuz crisis, a specific market was stood up tracking whether the Strait would reopen by July 31, 2026.
The metric: Probability that Hormuz reopens (defined as ≥60 ships/day average for one week) by July 31, 2026.
Current Reading¶
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Polymarket deal probability | ~27% (June 11, 2026) |
| Prior probability (weeks earlier) | ~40% |
| Direction | Deteriorating |
| Normal transit volume | ~135 ships/day |
| Polymarket "reopening" threshold | 60 ships/day (44% of normal) |
| Required duration | 1 week minimum |
Interpretation¶
Schieldrop's key observation: "So a 27 percent chance in that transits reach just half the normal rate, and it doesn't need to be permanent. Just one week or more. So the bar is not even very high."
Even this very low bar — half-normal transits for one week — is only pricing at 27%. This signals:
1. Market believes diplomatic talks are unlikely to produce tangible results by end of July
2. US-Iran tensions remain elevated (renewed hostilities June 10–12)
3. Physical market tightness will persist longer than the paper market was pricing
Relationship to Existing KB Concepts¶
- race-against-time — narrowing deal probability narrows the window for buffer preservation
- hormuz-scenario-tree — deal probability informs scenario weighting
- us-iran-interim-deal — the gCaptain June 12 report of interim deal near G7 may shift this probability
Referenced From¶
Created: 2026-06-12