Bjarne Schieldrop

Role: Chief Commodities Analyst
Affiliation: SEB (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) — Swedish financial group

Key Claims

Polymarket Deal Probability

  • Polymarket bets on Hormuz reopening by July 31: ~27%
  • Critical observation on the low bar: "So a 27 percent chance in that transits reach just half the normal rate, and it doesn't need to be permanent. Just one week or more. So the bar is not even very high."

Brent Price Action (Week of June 8–11)

  • Brent briefly touched below $90 on Tuesday (June 9 or 10)
  • Wednesday range: $90.77–$95.00/bbl
  • Wednesday close: +1.8% at $93.1/bbl "on the back of renewed hostilities"
  • Thursday: touched $95.5, settled $93.5

Created: 2026-06-12