Knowledge Base Source Manifest

Tier 1 — Institutional / Government (Authoritative)

Source Date File Key Data
Brookings Institution 2026-06-08 compiled/daily/brookings-strait-hormuz-crisis-jun8-2026.md Largest disruption in history; IRGC toll $1/bbl; ~90 tankers trapped; US gasoline $4.31/gal
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 2026-06-09 compiled/daily/eia-steo-june-2026-update.md OECD 2.3 Bbbl Dec 2026 (lowest since 2003); 50 days supply; Brent $105→$89 Q4; demand -1.1 mbd; 11.3 mbd shut-ins
IEA Oil Market Report 2026-06-11 compiled/institutions/iea-oil-market-report-june-2026.md Demand -1.1 mbd 2026; 2027 supply surplus +8 mbd vs +2 mbd demand
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 2026-06-11 compiled/institutions/opec-june-2026-monthly-report.md 2026 demand growth 970 kbd (2nd downgrade); 2027 raised to 1.73 mbd
EIA STEO September 2026 2026-09-09 compiled/sources/2026-09-09-eia-steo-september-2026.md Brent $90/bbl 2H26 ($8 raise vs Aug STEO); 4Q26 shut-ins 5.7 mb/d (½ of Aug STEO's 11.3); inventories -400 mb YTD; recovery delayed to 2Q27
IEA Oil Market Report September 2026 2026-09-11 compiled/sources/2026-09-11-iea-omr-september-2026.md Supply 100.7 mb/d (–5.7 y-o-y); demand –2.5 mb/d in 2026 (940 kbd lower than Aug OMR); US diesel >$200/bbl (+94% pre-war); Gulf exports ~½ pre-war; 507 mb war-to-date inventory draw
OPEC MOMR September 2026 2026-09-11 compiled/sources/2026-09-11-opec-momr-september-2026.md 2026 demand growth 380 kbd (5TH downgrade, –72% from Feb); 2027 raised again; OPEC+ paused Oct output increases; 1.98 mb/d gap with IEA
ECB Monetary Policy Decision 2026-09-11 compiled/sources/2026-09-11-ecb-rate-decision-september-2026.md +25bp to 2.50% (second Hormuz-shock hike); hawkish 'above target for extended period'; 88bp more priced by Sep 2027; eurozone inflation 3.3% Aug; energy +14.3%
CSIS — Iran War at Six Months 2026-08-24 compiled/sources/2026-08-24-csis-iran-war-six-months.md "Largest disruption in memory"; China destroyed 4-5 mb/d at trough; SPR under 300 mb; dark fleet bifurcation; Feb-2026 as demand peak thesis (Diwan)

Tier 2 — Analyst / Research Firms

Source Date File Key Data
Vitol / Tom Baker (Reuters) 2026-06-02 compiled/daily/vitol-tom-baker-bahrain-chief-jun2-2026.md ~4 mbd demand destruction; "West asleep at the wheel"; LNG +7%/+40 bcm
Rystad Energy (Rigzone) 2026-06-11 compiled/daily/rystad-energy-oil-may-climb-150-jun11-2026.md Worst case $150/bbl; Polymarket deal ~27%; Brent $90–$95.5 volatile
Enverus Intelligence Research 2026-06-11 compiled/daily/enverus-intelligence-hormuz-outlook-jun11-2026.md OECD 2.36 Bbbl trough Q4 2026 (20-yr low); Brent $110 avg H2, $117 peak Q4; $5–$10/bbl durable geopolitical premium
JPMorgan — Kaneva Forever War 2026-09-11 compiled/sources/2026-09-11-jpmorgan-kaneva-forever-war.md "Forever Conflict" Brent $87 2027 vs "End of War" $64 2027; curve $6 high front / $10 low back; JPM Q4 $80 (was $95)
Morgan Stanley Brent $100 / WTI $96 2026-08-31 compiled/sources/2026-08-31-morgan-stanley-brent-100-wti-96.md Brent Q3 $90, Q4 $100 (sharp raise from $75), Q1 2027 $95, Q2 2027 $90; WTI $96 Q4; floating storage –168 mb; deficit through Q1 2027
Goldman Sachs Brent $120 escalation 2026-09-09 compiled/sources/2026-09-09-goldman-brent-120-escalation.md Struyven: Brent "potentially $120" in upside scenario; Sep 9 Brent close $101.21 (highest since May); Iran new Hormuz exclusion zone; 2026 Brent $85 avg (raised $8)
OIES — Hormuz Hotel California 2026-08-22 compiled/sources/2026-08-22-oies-hormuz-hotel-california.md "Hotel California" LNG trap concept; TTF >$20/MMBtu if Strait not open by 4Q26; EU storage 70% by Oct; "Schrodinger's Strait" (Mitrova/Corbeau)

Tier 3 — Maritime / Trade Intelligence

Source Date File Key Data
TankerTrackers.com 2026-06-10 compiled/daily/tankertrackers-dark-fleet-tracking-jun10-2026.md 12 STS ships Jun 6; ~90 tankers still trapped; government vessels only
gCaptain 2026-06-10–11 compiled/daily/gcaptain-maritime-sts-suez-jun10-11-2026.md 16-tanker STS cluster; INTERTANKO Omani route advisory; ~15 vessels/day; Suez rerouting
Patrick De Haan / GasBuddy (X) 2026-09-24 compiled/sources/2026-09-24-gasbuddyguy-dehaan-diesel-vs-oil-explainer.md Public-facing explainer: "why diesel is $6.50 when oil is $95"; 45/25 refinery yield; Russia "~1 in 9" of global diesel trade; Persian Gulf + China + Russia simultaneous supply squeeze; US diesel exports ~1.9 mb/d record; distillate inventories lowest seasonal since 1996; refinery process-gain >100% in some US regions; 2008 vs 2026 comparison ($147 in 2008 = "well over $200 today"); Tier 3 corroborating explainer of refined-products-as-shock-center

Bold = sources added in 2026-09-13 kb-full-ingest / 1.1-ingest batch (9 new sources: 5 Tier 1 institutional, 4 Tier 2 analyst/research) plus 2026-09-26 GasBuddy / Patrick De Haan Tier 3 explainer (this intake).

Tier 1 — EIA STEO September 2026 Detail Pages (added 2026-09-29)

Source Date File Key Data
EIA STEO Sep 2026 — Petroleum Products Detail (petro_prod.php) 2026-09-09 compiled/sources/2026-09-09-eia-steo-september-2026-petroleum-products.md US distillate <100 mb Sep 2026; below 5-yr low through most of 2027; net exports above 5-yr high every month since Feb; diesel crack spread >$2/gal Aug–Nov 2026; Russia refinery outage overhang through H1 2027
EIA STEO Sep 2026 — Prices Detail (prices.php) 2026-09-09 compiled/sources/2026-09-09-eia-steo-september-2026-prices.md US gasoline $4.07/gal 2026 / $3.85/gal 2027; US diesel $5.07/gal 2026 / $4.40/gal 2027 (+33¢ upward revision)
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — week ending Sep 18, 2026 2026-09-24 release compiled/sources/2026-09-24-eia-weekly-petroleum-status-report.md US finished motor gasoline product supplied (4-wk avg) 8.779 mb/d for 4 weeks ending Sep 18, 2026; YoY change −69 kb/d (−0.78%); direct fetch limited, claims triangulated

Tier 2 — Pakistan Cluster (added 2026-09-29)

Source Date File Key Data
ProPakistani — Pakistan OMC Aug 2026 petroleum sales 2026-09-02 compiled/sources/2026-09-02-propakistani-pakistan-august-2026-petroleum-sales.md HSD −19% YoY / −32% MoM to 422 kt; petrol −1% YoY; furnace oil +4x (RLNG-shortage-driven); diesel Rs 379/L (+36% YoY); PSO 45.2% share
ProPakistani — OMC diesel stocks below 20-day cover 2026-09-12 compiled/sources/2026-09-12-propakistani-pakistan-omc-diesel-stocks.md 12 of 20 OMCs below 20-day regulatory minimum (My Petroleum: 1 day; Vital: 2; Echo: 3); pricing-uncertainty-driven stock hesitancy
Pakistan Today / Profit (AKD Securities attribution) 2026-09-03 compiled/sources/2026-09-03-pakistan-today-pakistan-petroleum-sales-august.md Three-factor attribution (transport strike + price + July pull-forward); PSO 45.2% share; +5% YoY FY27 outlook
Pakistan Petroleum Division — Pricing Committee 7th meeting 2026-09-03 compiled/institutions/2026-09-03-pakistan-petroleum-division-pricing-committee-september-3-2026.md Approved guiding principles for emergency diesel price-shock intervention; June 2027 petrol deregulation target; IFEM methodology revision; OMC consolidation study
Pakistan PID — Emergency Coordination Meeting 2026-09-24 compiled/institutions/2026-09-24-pakistan-pid-fuel-relief-scheme-emergency-coordination-september-24-2026.md Rail transport activated for HSD to KP; PSO depot stocks pre-arranged; OGRA crisis-management control room; PM Fuel Relief Scheme 8,500+ of 10,000+ pumps paid

Tier 2 — Counter-Evidence & Analyst (added 2026-09-29)

Source Date File Key Data
Reuters (via MarketScreener) — India August fuel demand 2026-09-08 compiled/sources/2026-09-08-reuters-india-august-fuel-demand.md Diesel +6.8% YoY (subsidized/growth-insulated); LPG −17.2% YoY; naphtha −22.3% YoY; bitumen +19.8% YoY; total 18.61 mt = 2-yr low
Axios — EIA 2027 diesel price outlook 2026-09-09 compiled/sources/2026-09-09-axios-eia-diesel-price-outlook.md 2027 US diesel retail raised to $4.40/gal (+33¢ upward revision vs prior STEO); direct fetch inaccessible, claims triangulated

Tier 2 — Academic / Reference (added 2026-09-29)

Source Date File Key Data
Diesel Price Elasticity — Pre-2020 Academic Evidence Baseline (CONSOLIDATED) 2026-09-29 compiled/concepts/energy/diesel-price-elasticity-evidence-baseline.md Consolidates De Borger & Mulalic 2012 (Danish trucking SR −0.13 / LR −0.22), Wadud 2016 (UK rigid trucks ~−0.15), Ramli & Graham 2014 (UK total road diesel SR −0.11 to −0.16 / LR −0.21 to −0.30), Winebrake et al. 2015 (US single-unit truck activity NOT price-responsive; efficiency is). Implied 2026 US diesel destruction at SR elasticity and +25–45% price: −3.3% to −7.2% (price-only floor). Pakistan observed −19% YoY at +36% price is 4× implied; non-elasticity rationing dominates. Treated as reference baseline (not standalone daily-source entries) per discovery report instruction.

Tier 3 — Africa Regional Context (added 2026-09-29)

Source Date File Key Data
S&P Global — Africa Refined Products Short-Term Outlook 2026-01-30 compiled/sources/2026-01-30-sp-global-africa-refined-products-outlook.md 1.9% African refined products demand growth forecast for 2026; modest diesel growth in Algeria, Egypt, South Africa; PDF binary only, claims triangulated
S&P Global — Russian export ban strains African gasoil markets 2026-07-30 compiled/sources/2026-07-30-sp-global-russian-export-ban-african-gasoil.md Russian product export ban strains African gasoil supply; price effect dominates over volume effect; direct fetch inaccessible, claims triangulated

Bold = sources added in 2026-09-29 kb-full-ingest / 1.1-ingest batch (13 net-new source articles: 3 Tier 1 EIA detail, 5 Tier 2 Pakistan cluster, 2 Tier 2 counter-evidence/analyst, 1 Tier 2 academic consolidated reference, 2 Tier 3 Africa regional context). Discovery-report mis-attribution of the Petroleum Division URL (Sep 3 content vs Sep 24 attribution) corrected with explicit provenance note in the affected article.

Last updated: 2026-09-29