EC: EU Prepared for Winter 2025/26

Institution: European Commission (DG Energy) / ENTSOG

Date: October 9, 2025

URL: https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-prepared-winter-and-beyond-confirms-latest-report-european-transmission-system-operators-gas-2025-10-09_en

File: ec-eu-prepared-winter-2025-26.md

Summary

This EC news release from October 9, 2025 (published before the February 2026 Hormuz closure) confirms that the EU is well-prepared for winter 2025–2026 based on ENTSOG's annual Winter Supply Outlook. The EU gas system started the heating season at 83% storage — within the range of pre-energy-crisis years and demonstrating resilience despite the end of Russian pipeline gas imports. Commissioner Dan Jørgensen stated that the EU is on track to become fully independent from Russian gas supplies.

Key Findings

**EU storage on October 1, 2025:** The EU gas system reached a storage level of **83% on 1 October 2025** — within the range observed in years prior to the energy crisis. (ENTSOG/EC, October 2025)

**Independence from Russian gas confirmed:** Even without Russian pipeline gas imports, winter can end with EU storage filled at **35%** — providing a good basis for refilling next summer. The EU gas system is resilient enough to increase LNG imports and compensate for loss of supply even in disruption scenarios. (ENTSOG/EC, October 2025)

**REPowerEU progress:** Commissioner Jørgensen confirmed the EU is on track to become fully independent from Russian gas supplies — the core objective of REPowerEU. The phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports as a whole is progressing. (EU Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, October 2025)

**Infrastructure resilience:** "The report points to the essential role gas storage plays in securing the winter supply as well as the ability and resilience of European infrastructure to ensure supply can meet demand, even under severe conditions." (ENTSOG/EC, October 2025)

**Winter supply testing:** As in previous years, the ENTSOG report tested the EU's resilience against a number of scenarios including disruption scenarios. This year's report particularly analyzed the impact of the end of imports of Russian pipeline gas. (ENTSOG/EC, October 2025)

**Demand reduction as a tool:** The report confirms the need to continue to prepare for subsequent winters by storing gas throughout summer and by reducing gas demand. (ENTSOG/EC, October 2025)

**Summer 2026 preparation:** The report was published in conjunction with a summer 2026 overview, assessing the EU's ability to refill to 90% by September 2026. (ENTSOG/EC, October 2025)

Entities Mentioned

**Organizations:** European Commission (Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jørgensen), ENTSOG, REPowerEU
**Places/Countries:** EU Member States
**Infrastructure:** Underground gas storage (UGS) facilities, LNG terminals, European gas infrastructure network
**Numbers:** 83% (storage October 1, 2025), 35% (end-of-winter minimum projection without Russian gas), 90% (EU storage filling target), October 1, 2025 (start of winter filling season)

Relevance to Q1/Q2/Q3

**Q1 (Hormuz closure extent):** Not directly relevant — pre-crisis baseline document from October 2025. Most useful for establishing the starting position of EU gas storage before the February 2026 closure.
**Q2 (Price impact):** Low direct relevance — this is a policy confirmation statement, not a price forecasting document. The 83% storage starting point and documented infrastructure resilience are structural context for understanding price dynamics.
**Q3 (Europe gas/security):** High direct relevance — confirms the EU entered the winter 2025/26 heating season (and by implication the spring/summer 2026 refill season) with solid storage coverage. Documents the institutional framework (ENTSOG monitoring, Gas Coordination Group) that would be active during a crisis.

Quotes

"The EU is well prepared for the upcoming winter. Our system is also resilient against supply disruptions, including a complete cut of Russian pipeline gas imports. This means that timely winter preparations, our diversification efforts and the replenishing of gas storage pay off." — Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, October 2025

"The report points to the essential role gas storage plays in securing the winter supply as well as the ability and resilience of European infrastructure to ensure supply can meet demand, even under severe conditions." — ENTSOG Winter Supply Outlook / EC News Release, October 2025

"The EU is on track to become fully independent from Russian gas supplies." — Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, October 2025

Q1-SUPPLY-DESTRUCTION Q2-PRICE-IMPACT Q3-EUROPE-IMPACT