Phased Restart Protocol¶

The maritime industry's consensus reopening framework: a gradual, priority-ordered expansion of Hormuz transit rather than a sudden surge back to pre-crisis traffic volumes.

Core Framework¶

Lloyd's List Intelligence VP Editorial Adam Sharpe (June 17–18, 2026): "The most likely scenario is a phased restart."

This framing is now the standard industry characterization, replacing earlier expectations of rapid normalization.

Priority Access Tiering¶

Once reopening proceeds, vessel types are expected to receive priority access in order:

Oil tankers — energy cargoes for Pakistan, India, China (pre-existing agreements with Iran)
LNG carriers — high-value energy shipments
Greek-owned vessels — moved via northern corridor during closure, low-friction restart
UAE/Kuwait/Iraq shuttle tankers — already operating at ~2.5 mbd via STS in Gulf of Oman
General cargo, bulk, chemical, container — later phases as war risk premiums decline

Gating Factors¶

Factor	Constraint
Minesweeping	Up to 6 months (Kpler/Amena Bakr)
War risk premium trajectory	Currently 10% of hull value; must decline before mainstream owners commit
US blockade legal status	Remains technically in force until MOU signing June 19
First-mover risk	Japan/South Korea/China/Western traders watching initial transits
Shadow fleet status	200+ Iranian-sanctioned tankers remain immobilized

The April False Start Precedent¶

The April 18 false start — where 50+ ships attempted AIS-visible transits and 33 U-turned mid-course after IRGC declared the strait closed and attacked two ships — has fundamentally shaped shipowner caution. The reversal was economically and reputationally costly for first movers.

Realistic Timeline¶

Full pre-conflict traffic volume: realistically a 2027 story — and only if the agreement holds without incident and Gulf production recovers at pace.

hormuz — the chokepoint at the center of this reopening protocol
lng-glut-post-reopening — LNG surplus expected once Ras Laffan recovers and flows normalize
supply-destruction — supply destruction that preceded and will outlast the reopening
dark-fleet — dark AIS operating procedures used during closure that may persist in early reopening
stranded-vessels-phenomenon — 160+ vessels stranded >100 days complicating the restart logistics